Russia’s Complex Impact: From Ukraine War to German Business & Security

What’s happening right now

1. Escalating military tension – Analysts warn that we are in a more dangerous moment than the Cold War, citing Russia’s announcements of weapons tests and the use of drones and missiles near Ukrainian territory.
2. Germany’s business dilemma – A recent investigation shows that around 248 German companies are still operating in Russia, collectively paying billions of dollars in taxes to the Russian government — raising ethical and geopolitical questions.
3. Russian hybrid and proxy actions in Europe – Beyond conventional warfare, Russia is employing tactics like disinformation, recruitment of “throw-away agents” for sabotage and using non­military channels to destabilise societies.
4. German & NATO security posture shifting – Germany’s military presence on NATO’s eastern flank (e.g., in Lithuania) is being strengthened in response to Russia’s threats, pointing to an evolving security landscape.

📊 Why this matters for Germany

• Defence and stability: The security of Germany and its NATO allies is directly affected by Russia’s actions — from drone attacks to missile tests. The heightened risk influences budgeting, military readiness, and public sentiment.
• Economic risks: German companies operating in Russia risk not only reputational damage but also exposure to sanctions, regulatory changes and geopolitical blowback. The flow of tax revenue to Russia via these companies is politically sensitive.
• Information war: Russia’s use of subtle tactics to influence opinion and destabilise democracies means that German society must remain vigilant about disinformation, cybersecurity and hybrid threats.
• Policy & diplomacy: Germany must balance its role in Europe, its ties to Russia (economic/trade) and the demands of solidarity with Ukraine and NATO — a challenging diplomatic path.

📌 Key data & take-aways

• Around 248 German companies remain active in Russia and reportedly pay up to 2 billion USD per year to the Russian state in various tax and business forms
• Analysts warn that current tensions — including Russia’s announced weapons tests — create a situation described as “more dangerous than the Cold War.”
• Russian drone attacks reached near Moscow, with airports temporarily closed after dozens of drones were shot down.
• Russia’s hybrid warfare tactics increasingly mirror those of non-state terror groups: leveraging social media, sabotage, and proxy actors.
• Germany’s military presence in Lithuania as part of NATO’s eastern flank is being expanded in response to these growing threats.

✅ What to watch

• Whether Germany will tighten regulations or impose stricter controls on German business activities in Russia in light of the tax-flow data.
• How Russian military signalling develops: Will there be further weapon tests, or new deployments that escalate the threat level in Europe?
• The evolution of Russia’s hybrid tactics: Specifically how they may play out within Germany (cyber, propaganda, infiltration).
• NATO’s strategy response: German armed forces, joint missions, and whether Germany commits more resources to the eastern flank.
• The public debate in Germany: How the intersection of business interests, ethical concerns, and national security will unfold politically.

🧭 Final thoughts

Russia’s actions today are not confined to a battlefield far away — they affect Germany’s economy, defence, and society. Whether through business links, military posture, or information campaigns, the impact is multifaceted. For German audiences, keeping an eye on the interplay of economics, security and diplomacy with Russia is critical.